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Zürich II vs Young Boys II — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Zürich II
Zürich II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Young Boys II
Young Boys II
8/30/20241. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 5Sportanlage Heerenschürli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Zürich II47%
×Draw23%
Young Boys II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zürich II
1.85
Young Boys II
1.43

Zürich II creates 29% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 85 away

creates per match

Zürich II
1.75
Young Boys II
1.35

allows per match

Zürich II
1.50
Young Boys II
1.96

finishing

Zürich II+0.00on par
Young Boys II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zürich II ↓

Young Boys II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Zürich II or draw
70%
Zürich II or Young Boys II
77%
Draw or Young Boys II
53%

Winning margin

Zürich II wins by 2+
26%
Young Boys II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Zürich II 1+ goals
84%
Zürich II 2+ goals
55%
Zürich II 3+ goals
28%
Young Boys II 1+ goals
76%
Young Boys II 2+ goals
42%
Young Boys II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Zürich II (draw refunded)
61%
Young Boys II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zürich II at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 104 matches

Young Boys II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.96 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zürich II attack 1.75 + Young Boys II defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.85

Young Boys II attack 1.35 + Zürich II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Zürich II scores more
47%
level
23%
Young Boys II scores more
30%

Zürich II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Zürich II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Promotion: Zürich II 0–1 Young Boys II

Young Boys II beat Zürich II 1-0 in 1. Liga Promotion on August 30, 2024.

The match was played at Sportanlage Heerenschürli in Zürich.