Zürich II 4–2 Köniz: Result & Stats

Zürich II

FT

4 – 2

Köniz

9/7/2019

1. Liga Promotion · Round 7Sportanlage Heerenschürli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Zürich II59%

×Draw20%

Köniz21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zürich IIExpected goals in this matchKöniz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.31

Zürich II

2.29

Köniz

1.31

Zürich II creates 75% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 23 away

1.75

creates per match

1.13

1.50

allows per match

2.83

creates per match

Zürich II

1.75

Köniz

1.13

allows per match

Zürich II

1.50

Köniz

2.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zürich II+0.00on par

Köniz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zürich II ↓

Köniz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Zürich II or draw

79%

Zürich II or Köniz

80%

Draw or Köniz

41%

Winning margin

Zürich II wins by 2+

37%

Köniz wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Zürich II 1+ goals

90%

Zürich II 2+ goals

66%

Zürich II 3+ goals

40%

Köniz 1+ goals

73%

Köniz 2+ goals

38%

Köniz 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Zürich II (draw refunded)

74%

Köniz (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zürich II at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 104 matches

Köniz away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.83 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zürich II attack 1.75 + Köniz defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.29

Köniz attack 1.13 + Zürich II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Zürich II scores more

59%

level

20%

Köniz scores more

21%

Zürich II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Zürich II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff