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Zürich II vs Biel-Bienne — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Zürich II
Zürich II
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Biel-Bienne
Biel-Bienne
4/9/20251. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 27Sportanlage Heerenschürli Platz 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Zürich II41%
×Draw23%
Biel-Bienne36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zürich II
1.69
Biel-Bienne
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 104 home / 86 away

creates per match

Zürich II
1.75
Biel-Bienne
1.64

allows per match

Zürich II
1.50
Biel-Bienne
1.63

finishing

Zürich II+0.00on par
Biel-Bienne+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zürich II ↓

Biel-Bienne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Zürich II or draw
64%
Zürich II or Biel-Bienne
77%
Draw or Biel-Bienne
59%

Winning margin

Zürich II wins by 2+
21%
Biel-Bienne wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Zürich II 1+ goals
82%
Zürich II 2+ goals
50%
Zürich II 3+ goals
24%
Biel-Bienne 1+ goals
79%
Biel-Bienne 2+ goals
46%
Biel-Bienne 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Zürich II (draw refunded)
53%
Biel-Bienne (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zürich II at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 104 matches

Biel-Bienne away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.63 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zürich II attack 1.75 + Biel-Bienne defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.69

Biel-Bienne attack 1.64 + Zürich II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Zürich II scores more
41%
level
23%
Biel-Bienne scores more
36%

Zürich II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Zürich II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Promotion: Zürich II 1–4 Biel-Bienne

Biel-Bienne beat Zürich II 4-1 in 1. Liga Promotion on April 9, 2025.

The match was played at Sportanlage Heerenschürli Platz 15 in Zürich.