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Župa vs Moravac Mrštane — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Župa
Župa
FT
6 – 2
Moravac Mrštane
Moravac Mrštane
11/29/2020Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 19Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Župa67%
×Draw16%
Moravac Mrštane17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Župa
2.85
Moravac Mrštane
1.40

Župa creates 104% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 28 away

creates per match

Župa
1.53
Moravac Mrštane
0.79

allows per match

Župa
2.00
Moravac Mrštane
4.18

finishing

Župa+0.00on par
Moravac Mrštane+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Župa ↓

Moravac Mrštane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Župa or draw
83%
Župa or Moravac Mrštane
84%
Draw or Moravac Mrštane
33%

Winning margin

Župa wins by 2+
46%
Moravac Mrštane wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Župa 1+ goals
94%
Župa 2+ goals
77%
Župa 3+ goals
53%
Moravac Mrštane 1+ goals
75%
Moravac Mrštane 2+ goals
41%
Moravac Mrštane 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Župa (draw refunded)
80%
Moravac Mrštane (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Župa at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

Moravac Mrštane away — creates 0.79, concedes 4.18 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Župa attack 1.53 + Moravac Mrštane defence 4.18 → ÷2 → 2.85

Moravac Mrštane attack 0.79 + Župa defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Župa scores more
67%
level
16%
Moravac Mrštane scores more
17%

Župa at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Župa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Župa vs Moravac Mrštane

Župa beat Moravac Mrštane 6-2 in Srpska Liga - East on November 29, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Aleksandrovac.