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Župa vs Kablovi Zaječar — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Župa
Župa
FT
6 – 1
Kablovi Zaječar
Kablovi Zaječar
10/11/2020Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 12Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Župa79%
×Draw11%
Kablovi Zaječar9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Župa
3.69
Kablovi Zaječar
1.27

Župa creates 191% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Župa
1.53
Kablovi Zaječar
0.53

allows per match

Župa
2.00
Kablovi Zaječar
5.84

finishing

Župa+0.00on par
Kablovi Zaječar+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Župa ↓

Kablovi Zaječar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Župa or draw
91%
Župa or Kablovi Zaječar
89%
Draw or Kablovi Zaječar
21%

Winning margin

Župa wins by 2+
62%
Kablovi Zaječar wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Župa 1+ goals
97%
Župa 2+ goals
87%
Župa 3+ goals
69%
Kablovi Zaječar 1+ goals
72%
Kablovi Zaječar 2+ goals
36%
Kablovi Zaječar 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Župa (draw refunded)
90%
Kablovi Zaječar (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Župa at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

Kablovi Zaječar away — creates 0.53, concedes 5.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Župa attack 1.53 + Kablovi Zaječar defence 5.84 → ÷2 → 3.69

Kablovi Zaječar attack 0.53 + Župa defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Župa scores more
79%
level
11%
Kablovi Zaječar scores more
9%

Župa at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Župa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Župa 6–1 Kablovi Zaječar

Župa beat Kablovi Zaječar 6-1 in Srpska Liga - East on October 11, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Aleksandrovac.