Župa 1–1 Jedinstvo Paraćin: Result & Stats

Župa

FT

1 – 1

Jedinstvo Paraćin

5/1/2021

Srpska Liga - East · East - 32Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Župa39%

×Draw24%

Jedinstvo Paraćin37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŽupaExpected goals in this matchJedinstvo Paraćin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.52

Župa

1.57

Jedinstvo Paraćin

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 92 away

1.53

creates per match

1.04

2.00

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Župa

1.53

Jedinstvo Paraćin

1.04

allows per match

Župa

2.00

Jedinstvo Paraćin

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Župa+0.00on par

Jedinstvo Paraćin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Župa ↓

Jedinstvo Paraćin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Župa or draw

63%

Župa or Jedinstvo Paraćin

76%

Draw or Jedinstvo Paraćin

61%

Winning margin

Župa wins by 2+

19%

Jedinstvo Paraćin wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Župa 1+ goals

79%

Župa 2+ goals

46%

Župa 3+ goals

21%

Jedinstvo Paraćin 1+ goals

78%

Jedinstvo Paraćin 2+ goals

45%

Jedinstvo Paraćin 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Župa (draw refunded)

51%

Jedinstvo Paraćin (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Župa at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

Jedinstvo Paraćin away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.61 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Župa attack 1.53 + Jedinstvo Paraćin defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.57

Jedinstvo Paraćin attack 1.04 + Župa defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Župa scores more

39%

level

24%

Jedinstvo Paraćin scores more

37%

Župa at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Župa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff