Zumbi 3–0 Sao Domingos AL: Result & Stats

Zumbi

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Sao Domingos AL

Aurelio 57' (pen)

Afonso 41'

Unknown 39'

4/12/2026

Alagoano - 2 · Group Stage - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Zumbi85%

×Draw11%

Sao Domingos AL3%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZumbiExpected goals in this matchSao Domingos AL

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.56

0.32

Zumbi

2.56

Sao Domingos AL

0.32

Zumbi creates 700% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 8 away

1.50

creates per match

0.13

0.50

allows per match

3.63

creates per match

Zumbi

1.50

Sao Domingos AL

0.13

allows per match

Zumbi

0.50

Sao Domingos AL

3.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zumbi+0.00on par

Sao Domingos AL+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No75
Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zumbi ↓

Sao Domingos AL →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–12%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–15%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–019%

2–16%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–016%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–010%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (19%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Zumbi or draw

97%

Zumbi or Sao Domingos AL

89%

Draw or Sao Domingos AL

15%

Winning margin

Zumbi wins by 2+

64%

Sao Domingos AL wins by 2+

0%

Team goals

Zumbi 1+ goals

92%

Zumbi 2+ goals

72%

Zumbi 3+ goals

46%

Sao Domingos AL 1+ goals

27%

Sao Domingos AL 2+ goals

4%

Sao Domingos AL 3+ goals

0%

Draw no bet

Zumbi (draw refunded)

96%

Sao Domingos AL (draw refunded)

4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zumbi at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.50 · 16 matches

Sao Domingos AL away — creates 0.13, concedes 3.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zumbi attack 1.50 + Sao Domingos AL defence 3.63 → ÷2 → 2.56

Sao Domingos AL attack 0.13 + Zumbi defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Zumbi scores more

85%

level

11%

Sao Domingos AL scores more

3%

Zumbi at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Zumbi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

41'

Afonso

57'

AurelioPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff