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Zumbi vs Jacyobá — Alagoano - 2 2024

Zumbi
Zumbi
FT
2 – 0
Jacyobá
Jacyobá
4/22/2026Alagoano - 2Alagoano - 2 · Group Stage - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Zumbi81%
×Draw15%
Jacyobá4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zumbi
2.25
Jacyobá
0.34

Zumbi creates 562% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 12 away

creates per match

Zumbi
1.50
Jacyobá
0.17

allows per match

Zumbi
0.50
Jacyobá
3.00

finishing

Zumbi+0.00on par
Jacyobá+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

74%No
  • No74
  • Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zumbi ↓

Jacyobá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–13%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–16%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–019%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–13%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (19%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Zumbi or draw
96%
Zumbi or Jacyobá
85%
Draw or Jacyobá
19%

Winning margin

Zumbi wins by 2+
57%
Jacyobá wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Zumbi 1+ goals
89%
Zumbi 2+ goals
65%
Zumbi 3+ goals
39%
Jacyobá 1+ goals
29%
Jacyobá 2+ goals
5%
Jacyobá 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Zumbi (draw refunded)
95%
Jacyobá (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zumbi at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.50 · 16 matches

Jacyobá away — creates 0.17, concedes 3.00 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zumbi attack 1.50 + Jacyobá defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.25

Jacyobá attack 0.17 + Zumbi defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Zumbi scores more
81%
level
15%
Jacyobá scores more
4%

Zumbi at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Zumbi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Alagoano - 2: Zumbi 2–0 Jacyobá

Zumbi beat Jacyobá 2-0 in Alagoano - 2 on April 22, 2026.