Zulte Waregem 2–3 Cercle Brugge: Result & Stats

Zulte Waregem

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Cercle Brugge

4/23/2023

Jupiler Pro League · Round 34Elindus Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Zulte Waregem43%

×Draw24%

Cercle Brugge33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zulte WaregemExpected goals in this matchCercle Brugge

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.36

Zulte Waregem

1.60

Cercle Brugge

1.36

Zulte Waregem creates 18% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 23 away

1.68

creates per match

1.45

1.27

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Zulte Waregem

1.68

Cercle Brugge

1.45

allows per match

Zulte Waregem

1.27

Cercle Brugge

1.53

-0.04on par

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Zulte Waregem-0.04on par

Cercle Brugge-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zulte Waregem ↓

Cercle Brugge →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Zulte Waregem or draw

67%

Zulte Waregem or Cercle Brugge

76%

Draw or Cercle Brugge

57%

Winning margin

Zulte Waregem wins by 2+

22%

Cercle Brugge wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Zulte Waregem 1+ goals

80%

Zulte Waregem 2+ goals

47%

Zulte Waregem 3+ goals

22%

Cercle Brugge 1+ goals

74%

Cercle Brugge 2+ goals

39%

Cercle Brugge 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Zulte Waregem (draw refunded)

57%

Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zulte Waregem at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.27 · 14 matches

Cercle Brugge away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.53 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zulte Waregem attack 1.68 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.60

Cercle Brugge attack 1.45 + Zulte Waregem defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Zulte Waregem scores more

43%

level

24%

Cercle Brugge scores more

33%

Zulte Waregem at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Zulte Waregem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff