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Zulte Waregem vs Cercle Brugge — Jupiler Pro League 2026

Zulte Waregem
Zulte Waregem
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Cercle Brugge
Cercle Brugge
Idrissa Sylla 83'
Nill De Pauw 40'
Hamdi Harbaoui 14'
Irvin Cardona 65'
Gianni Bruno 25'
2/2/2019Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 24Regenboogstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Zulte Waregem42%
×Draw24%
Cercle Brugge33%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zulte Waregem
1.59
Cercle Brugge
1.38

Zulte Waregem creates 15% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 31 away

creates per match

Zulte Waregem
1.68
Cercle Brugge
1.49

allows per match

Zulte Waregem
1.27
Cercle Brugge
1.51

finishing

Zulte Waregem-0.04on par
Cercle Brugge-0.17scores less

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zulte Waregem ↓

Cercle Brugge →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Zulte Waregem or draw
67%
Zulte Waregem or Cercle Brugge
76%
Draw or Cercle Brugge
58%

Winning margin

Zulte Waregem wins by 2+
21%
Cercle Brugge wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Zulte Waregem 1+ goals
80%
Zulte Waregem 2+ goals
47%
Zulte Waregem 3+ goals
21%
Cercle Brugge 1+ goals
75%
Cercle Brugge 2+ goals
40%
Cercle Brugge 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Zulte Waregem (draw refunded)
56%
Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zulte Waregem at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.27 · 14 matches

Cercle Brugge away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.51 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zulte Waregem attack 1.68 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.59

Cercle Brugge attack 1.49 + Zulte Waregem defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Zulte Waregem scores more
42%
level
24%
Cercle Brugge scores more
33%

Zulte Waregem at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Zulte Waregem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
Xavier Mercier
14'
Hamdi Harbaoui
25'
Gianni Bruno
40'
Nill De Pauw
50'
Yoann Etienne
60'
Guevin Tormin← Kylian Hazard
60'
Irvin Cardona← Serge Gakpé
65'
Irvin Cardona
70'
Lloyd Palun
70'
Idrissa Sylla← Henrik Bjørdal
71'
Mikael Soisalo← Nill De Pauw
81'
Benjamin Delacourt← Issa Marega
83'
Idrissa Sylla
89'
Sandy Walsh← Hamdi Harbaoui
90'
Lloyd Palun
90'
Lloyd Palun

Statistics

ZulteCercle
Overview
4Corners4
Discipline
0Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1

Jupiler Pro League: Zulte Waregem 3–2 Cercle Brugge

Zulte Waregem beat Cercle Brugge 3-2 in Jupiler Pro League on February 2, 2019.

Goals: Hamdi Harbaoui (14'), Gianni Bruno (25'), Nill De Pauw (40'), Irvin Cardona (65'), Idrissa Sylla (83').

The match was played at Regenboogstadion in Waregem.