Zulia FC 1–0 Sporting Cristal: Result & Stats

Zulia FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sporting Cristal

7/23/2019

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 8th FinalsEstadio José Pachencho Romero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Zulia FC44%

×Draw35%

Sporting Cristal21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zulia FCExpected goals in this matchSporting Cristal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

0.57

Zulia FC

0.97

Sporting Cristal

0.57

Zulia FC creates 70% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

1.33

creates per match

0.80

0.33

allows per match

0.60

creates per match

Zulia FC

1.33

Sporting Cristal

0.80

allows per match

Zulia FC

0.33

Sporting Cristal

0.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zulia FC+0.00on par

Sporting Cristal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under80
Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No73
Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zulia FC ↓

Sporting Cristal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–021%

0–112%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

79%21%1.5

46%54%2.5

20%80%3.5

7%93%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Zulia FC or draw

79%

Zulia FC or Sporting Cristal

65%

Draw or Sporting Cristal

56%

Winning margin

Zulia FC wins by 2+

17%

Sporting Cristal wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Zulia FC 1+ goals

62%

Zulia FC 2+ goals

25%

Zulia FC 3+ goals

7%

Sporting Cristal 1+ goals

43%

Sporting Cristal 2+ goals

11%

Sporting Cristal 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Zulia FC (draw refunded)

68%

Sporting Cristal (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

15%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zulia FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Sporting Cristal away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zulia FC attack 1.33 + Sporting Cristal defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.97

Sporting Cristal attack 0.80 + Zulia FC defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Zulia FC scores more

44%

level

35%

Sporting Cristal scores more

21%

Zulia FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zulia FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff