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Zulia FC vs Puerto Cabello — Primera División 2018

Zulia FC
Zulia FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Puerto Cabello
Puerto Cabello
2/17/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 4Estadio Olímpico José Encarnación Pachencho Romero (Maracaibo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Zulia FC41%
×Draw27%
Puerto Cabello32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zulia FC
1.32
Puerto Cabello
1.12

Zulia FC creates 18% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 143 away

creates per match

Zulia FC
1.48
Puerto Cabello
1.02

allows per match

Zulia FC
1.22
Puerto Cabello
1.16

finishing

Zulia FC+0.00on par
Puerto Cabello+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zulia FC ↓

Puerto Cabello →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Zulia FC or draw
68%
Zulia FC or Puerto Cabello
73%
Draw or Puerto Cabello
59%

Winning margin

Zulia FC wins by 2+
19%
Puerto Cabello wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Zulia FC 1+ goals
73%
Zulia FC 2+ goals
38%
Zulia FC 3+ goals
15%
Puerto Cabello 1+ goals
67%
Puerto Cabello 2+ goals
31%
Puerto Cabello 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Zulia FC (draw refunded)
57%
Puerto Cabello (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zulia FC at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.22 · 67 matches

Puerto Cabello away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.16 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zulia FC attack 1.48 + Puerto Cabello defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.32

Puerto Cabello attack 1.02 + Zulia FC defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Zulia FC scores more
41%
level
27%
Puerto Cabello scores more
32%

Zulia FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Zulia FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zulia FC 2 – 1 Puerto Cabello

Zulia FC beat Puerto Cabello 2-1 in Primera División on February 17, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico José Encarnación Pachencho Romero (Maracaibo).