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Puerto Cabello vs Zulia FC — Primera División 2018

Puerto Cabello
Puerto Cabello
CANC
20:00
Zulia FC
Zulia FC
5/24/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 16Complejo Deportivo Socialista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Puerto Cabello48%
×Draw26%
Zulia FC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puerto Cabello
1.52
Zulia FC
1.04

Puerto Cabello creates 46% more chances

Season form · 141 home / 66 away

creates per match

Puerto Cabello
1.42
Zulia FC
1.06

allows per match

Puerto Cabello
1.01
Zulia FC
1.61

finishing

Puerto Cabello+0.00on par
Zulia FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puerto Cabello ↓

Zulia FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Puerto Cabello or draw
74%
Puerto Cabello or Zulia FC
74%
Draw or Zulia FC
52%

Winning margin

Puerto Cabello wins by 2+
24%
Zulia FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Puerto Cabello 1+ goals
78%
Puerto Cabello 2+ goals
45%
Puerto Cabello 3+ goals
20%
Zulia FC 1+ goals
65%
Zulia FC 2+ goals
28%
Zulia FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Puerto Cabello (draw refunded)
65%
Zulia FC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puerto Cabello at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.01 · 141 matches

Zulia FC away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.61 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puerto Cabello attack 1.42 + Zulia FC defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.52

Zulia FC attack 1.06 + Puerto Cabello defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Puerto Cabello scores more
48%
level
26%
Zulia FC scores more
26%

Puerto Cabello at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Puerto Cabello will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Puerto Cabello face Zulia FC (Primera División)

Primera División returns with Puerto Cabello hosting Zulia FC. Match starts May 24, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Puerto Cabello host Zulia FC at Complejo Deportivo Socialista.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.