Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Zulia FC vs Portuguesa FC — Primera División 2018

Zulia FC
Zulia FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Portuguesa FC
Portuguesa FC
9/3/2021Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 21Sede Deportiva Lino Alonso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Zulia FC45%
×Draw27%
Portuguesa FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zulia FC
1.42
Portuguesa FC
1.06

Zulia FC creates 34% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 137 away

creates per match

Zulia FC
1.48
Portuguesa FC
0.91

allows per match

Zulia FC
1.22
Portuguesa FC
1.36

finishing

Zulia FC+0.00on par
Portuguesa FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zulia FC ↓

Portuguesa FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Zulia FC or draw
72%
Zulia FC or Portuguesa FC
73%
Draw or Portuguesa FC
55%

Winning margin

Zulia FC wins by 2+
22%
Portuguesa FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Zulia FC 1+ goals
76%
Zulia FC 2+ goals
41%
Zulia FC 3+ goals
17%
Portuguesa FC 1+ goals
65%
Portuguesa FC 2+ goals
29%
Portuguesa FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Zulia FC (draw refunded)
62%
Portuguesa FC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zulia FC at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.22 · 67 matches

Portuguesa FC away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.36 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zulia FC attack 1.48 + Portuguesa FC defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.42

Portuguesa FC attack 0.91 + Zulia FC defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Zulia FC scores more
45%
level
27%
Portuguesa FC scores more
28%

Zulia FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Zulia FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zulia FC vs Portuguesa FC

Zulia FC and Portuguesa FC drew 0-0 in Primera División on September 3, 2021.

The match was played at Sede Deportiva Lino Alonso in Maracaibo.