Zulia FC 0–1 Nacional Potosí: Result & Stats

Zulia FC

Pens

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Nacional Potosí

José Martínez -1' (pen)

Brayan Moya -1' (pen)

Vladimir Castellon 38'

4/16/2019

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 1st RoundEstadio José Pachencho Romero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Zulia FC76%

×Draw17%

Nacional Potosí7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zulia FCExpected goals in this matchNacional Potosí

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

0.45

Zulia FC

2.11

Nacional Potosí

0.45

Zulia FC creates 369% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

1.33

creates per match

0.56

0.33

allows per match

2.89

creates per match

Zulia FC

1.33

Nacional Potosí

0.56

allows per match

Zulia FC

0.33

Nacional Potosí

2.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zulia FC+0.00on par

Nacional Potosí+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zulia FC ↓

Nacional Potosí →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–17%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (17%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Zulia FC or draw

93%

Zulia FC or Nacional Potosí

83%

Draw or Nacional Potosí

24%

Winning margin

Zulia FC wins by 2+

51%

Nacional Potosí wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Zulia FC 1+ goals

88%

Zulia FC 2+ goals

62%

Zulia FC 3+ goals

35%

Nacional Potosí 1+ goals

36%

Nacional Potosí 2+ goals

8%

Nacional Potosí 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Zulia FC (draw refunded)

92%

Nacional Potosí (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zulia FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Nacional Potosí away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zulia FC attack 1.33 + Nacional Potosí defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 2.11

Nacional Potosí attack 0.56 + Zulia FC defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Zulia FC scores more

76%

level

17%

Nacional Potosí scores more

7%

Zulia FC at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Zulia FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

Martin Galain

Nacional Potosí · D

7.6

Match Events

-1'

Miguel CelisMissed penalty

-1'

José MartínezPenalty

-1'

Juan Manuel CastillaMissed penalty

-1'

Brayan MoyaPenalty

-1'

Wilder SalazarMissed penalty

-1'

Vladimir CastellonMissed penalty

-1'

Bruno PascuaMissed penalty

-1'

Walter Humberto Rioja UgarteMissed penalty

21'

Juan Manuel Castilla← Evelio Hernández

38'

Vladimir Castellon

65'

Albert Zambrano← Abel Casquete

68'

Jerry León

68'

Luis Torrico

80'

Diego Navarro← Miguel Quiroga

85'

Miguel Celis← Frank Feltscher

85'

Edson Perez← Nicolas Royon

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ZuliaNacional

Overview

32%Possession68%

15Total Shots9

4Corners0

12Fouls14

Shots

15Total Shots9

3On Target2

8Off Target5

4Blocked2

8Inside Box4

7Outside Box5

Passing

32%Possession68%

267Total Passes567

195Accurate Passes483

73%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls14

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0