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Zulia FC vs Monagas SC — Primera División 2018

Zulia FC
Zulia FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Monagas SC
Monagas SC
8/11/2022Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 24Sede Deportiva Lino Alonso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Zulia FC44%
×Draw26%
Monagas SC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zulia FC
1.48
Monagas SC
1.19

Zulia FC creates 24% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 134 away

creates per match

Zulia FC
1.48
Monagas SC
1.17

allows per match

Zulia FC
1.22
Monagas SC
1.49

finishing

Zulia FC+0.00on par
Monagas SC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zulia FC ↓

Monagas SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Zulia FC or draw
70%
Zulia FC or Monagas SC
74%
Draw or Monagas SC
56%

Winning margin

Zulia FC wins by 2+
21%
Monagas SC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Zulia FC 1+ goals
77%
Zulia FC 2+ goals
43%
Zulia FC 3+ goals
19%
Monagas SC 1+ goals
70%
Monagas SC 2+ goals
33%
Monagas SC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Zulia FC (draw refunded)
59%
Monagas SC (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zulia FC at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.22 · 67 matches

Monagas SC away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.49 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zulia FC attack 1.48 + Monagas SC defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.48

Monagas SC attack 1.17 + Zulia FC defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Zulia FC scores more
44%
level
26%
Monagas SC scores more
30%

Zulia FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zulia FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Zulia FC 0–0 Monagas SC

Zulia FC and Monagas SC drew 0-0 in Primera División on August 11, 2022.

The match was played at Sede Deportiva Lino Alonso in Maracaibo.