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Zulia FC vs Metropolitanos FC — Primera División 2018

Zulia FC
Zulia FC
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Metropolitanos FC
Metropolitanos FC
9/23/2018Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 11Estadio José Encarnación Pachencho Romero (Maracaibo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Zulia FC43%
×Draw26%
Metropolitanos FC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zulia FC
1.43
Metropolitanos FC
1.15

Zulia FC creates 24% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 140 away

creates per match

Zulia FC
1.48
Metropolitanos FC
1.07

allows per match

Zulia FC
1.22
Metropolitanos FC
1.37

finishing

Zulia FC+0.00on par
Metropolitanos FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zulia FC ↓

Metropolitanos FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Zulia FC or draw
70%
Zulia FC or Metropolitanos FC
74%
Draw or Metropolitanos FC
57%

Winning margin

Zulia FC wins by 2+
21%
Metropolitanos FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Zulia FC 1+ goals
76%
Zulia FC 2+ goals
42%
Zulia FC 3+ goals
17%
Metropolitanos FC 1+ goals
68%
Metropolitanos FC 2+ goals
32%
Metropolitanos FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Zulia FC (draw refunded)
59%
Metropolitanos FC (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zulia FC at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.22 · 67 matches

Metropolitanos FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.37 · 140 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zulia FC attack 1.48 + Metropolitanos FC defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.43

Metropolitanos FC attack 1.07 + Zulia FC defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Zulia FC scores more
43%
level
26%
Metropolitanos FC scores more
30%

Zulia FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Zulia FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zulia FC 5 – 0 Metropolitanos FC

Zulia FC beat Metropolitanos FC 5-0 in Primera División on September 23, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio José Encarnación Pachencho Romero (Maracaibo).