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Metropolitanos FC vs Zulia FC — Primera División 2018

Metropolitanos FC
Metropolitanos FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Zulia FC
Zulia FC
9/8/2022Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 28Estadio Olímpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Metropolitanos FC48%
×Draw25%
Zulia FC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metropolitanos FC
1.55
Zulia FC
1.08

Metropolitanos FC creates 44% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 66 away

creates per match

Metropolitanos FC
1.49
Zulia FC
1.06

allows per match

Metropolitanos FC
1.10
Zulia FC
1.61

finishing

Metropolitanos FC+0.00on par
Zulia FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metropolitanos FC ↓

Zulia FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Metropolitanos FC or draw
74%
Metropolitanos FC or Zulia FC
75%
Draw or Zulia FC
52%

Winning margin

Metropolitanos FC wins by 2+
25%
Zulia FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Metropolitanos FC 1+ goals
79%
Metropolitanos FC 2+ goals
46%
Metropolitanos FC 3+ goals
20%
Zulia FC 1+ goals
66%
Zulia FC 2+ goals
29%
Zulia FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Metropolitanos FC (draw refunded)
65%
Zulia FC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metropolitanos FC at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.10 · 139 matches

Zulia FC away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.61 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metropolitanos FC attack 1.49 + Zulia FC defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.55

Zulia FC attack 1.06 + Metropolitanos FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Metropolitanos FC scores more
48%
level
25%
Zulia FC scores more
26%

Metropolitanos FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Metropolitanos FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Metropolitanos FC vs Zulia FC

Metropolitanos FC beat Zulia FC 2-0 in Primera División on September 8, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de la UCV in Caracas.