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Zulia FC vs Llaneros de Guanare — Primera División 2018

Zulia FC
Zulia FC
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 4
Llaneros de Guanare
Llaneros de Guanare
11/3/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 18Estadio Olímpico José Encarnación Pachencho Romero (Maracaibo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Zulia FC53%
×Draw22%
Llaneros de Guanare26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zulia FC
1.99
Llaneros de Guanare
1.33

Zulia FC creates 50% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 20 away

creates per match

Zulia FC
1.48
Llaneros de Guanare
1.45

allows per match

Zulia FC
1.22
Llaneros de Guanare
2.50

finishing

Zulia FC+0.00on par
Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zulia FC ↓

Llaneros de Guanare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Zulia FC or draw
74%
Zulia FC or Llaneros de Guanare
78%
Draw or Llaneros de Guanare
47%

Winning margin

Zulia FC wins by 2+
31%
Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Zulia FC 1+ goals
86%
Zulia FC 2+ goals
59%
Zulia FC 3+ goals
32%
Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals
74%
Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals
38%
Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Zulia FC (draw refunded)
67%
Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zulia FC at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.22 · 67 matches

Llaneros de Guanare away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zulia FC attack 1.48 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.99

Llaneros de Guanare attack 1.45 + Zulia FC defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Zulia FC scores more
53%
level
22%
Llaneros de Guanare scores more
26%

Zulia FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Zulia FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zulia FC 2 – 4 Llaneros de Guanare

Llaneros de Guanare beat Zulia FC 4-2 in Primera División on November 3, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico José Encarnación Pachencho Romero (Maracaibo).