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Zulia FC vs Lala FC — Primera División 2018

Zulia FC
Zulia FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Lala FC
Lala FC
10/20/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 16Estadio Olímpico José Encarnación Pachencho Romero (Maracaibo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Zulia FC57%
×Draw24%
Lala FC20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zulia FC
1.74
Lala FC
0.92

Zulia FC creates 89% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 34 away

creates per match

Zulia FC
1.48
Lala FC
0.62

allows per match

Zulia FC
1.22
Lala FC
2.00

finishing

Zulia FC+0.00on par
Lala FC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zulia FC ↓

Lala FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Zulia FC or draw
80%
Zulia FC or Lala FC
76%
Draw or Lala FC
43%

Winning margin

Zulia FC wins by 2+
32%
Lala FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Zulia FC 1+ goals
82%
Zulia FC 2+ goals
52%
Zulia FC 3+ goals
25%
Lala FC 1+ goals
60%
Lala FC 2+ goals
23%
Lala FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Zulia FC (draw refunded)
74%
Lala FC (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zulia FC at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.22 · 67 matches

Lala FC away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.00 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zulia FC attack 1.48 + Lala FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.74

Lala FC attack 0.62 + Zulia FC defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Zulia FC scores more
57%
level
24%
Lala FC scores more
20%

Zulia FC at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Zulia FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Zulia FC 0–1 Lala FC

Lala FC beat Zulia FC 1-0 in Primera División on October 20, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico José Encarnación Pachencho Romero (Maracaibo).