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Zulia FC vs Deportivo Tachira FC — Primera División 2018

Zulia FC
Zulia FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Tachira FC
Deportivo Tachira FC
7/22/2018Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 1Estadio José Encarnación Pachencho Romero (Maracaibo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Zulia FC38%
×Draw28%
Deportivo Tachira FC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zulia FC
1.24
Deportivo Tachira FC
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 147 away

creates per match

Zulia FC
1.48
Deportivo Tachira FC
1.12

allows per match

Zulia FC
1.22
Deportivo Tachira FC
1.00

finishing

Zulia FC+0.00on par
Deportivo Tachira FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zulia FC ↓

Deportivo Tachira FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Zulia FC or draw
65%
Zulia FC or Deportivo Tachira FC
72%
Draw or Deportivo Tachira FC
62%

Winning margin

Zulia FC wins by 2+
16%
Deportivo Tachira FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Zulia FC 1+ goals
71%
Zulia FC 2+ goals
35%
Zulia FC 3+ goals
13%
Deportivo Tachira FC 1+ goals
69%
Deportivo Tachira FC 2+ goals
33%
Deportivo Tachira FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Zulia FC (draw refunded)
52%
Deportivo Tachira FC (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zulia FC at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.22 · 67 matches

Deportivo Tachira FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.00 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zulia FC attack 1.48 + Deportivo Tachira FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.24

Deportivo Tachira FC attack 1.12 + Zulia FC defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Zulia FC scores more
38%
level
28%
Deportivo Tachira FC scores more
35%

Zulia FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Zulia FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zulia FC vs Deportivo Tachira FC

Zulia FC beat Deportivo Tachira FC 1-0 in Primera División on July 22, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio José Encarnación Pachencho Romero (Maracaibo).