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Deportivo Tachira FC vs Zulia FC — Primera División 2018

Deportivo Tachira FC
Deportivo Tachira FC
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Zulia FC
Zulia FC
3/5/2022Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 2Estadio Rafael Agustín Tovar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Deportivo Tachira FC56%
×Draw24%
Zulia FC20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Tachira FC
1.71
Zulia FC
0.90

Deportivo Tachira FC creates 90% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 66 away

creates per match

Deportivo Tachira FC
1.80
Zulia FC
1.06

allows per match

Deportivo Tachira FC
0.73
Zulia FC
1.61

finishing

Deportivo Tachira FC+0.00on par
Zulia FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Tachira FC ↓

Zulia FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Deportivo Tachira FC or draw
80%
Deportivo Tachira FC or Zulia FC
76%
Draw or Zulia FC
44%

Winning margin

Deportivo Tachira FC wins by 2+
31%
Zulia FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Deportivo Tachira FC 1+ goals
82%
Deportivo Tachira FC 2+ goals
51%
Deportivo Tachira FC 3+ goals
24%
Zulia FC 1+ goals
59%
Zulia FC 2+ goals
23%
Zulia FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Tachira FC (draw refunded)
74%
Zulia FC (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Tachira FC at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.73 · 150 matches

Zulia FC away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.61 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Tachira FC attack 1.80 + Zulia FC defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.71

Zulia FC attack 1.06 + Deportivo Tachira FC defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Deportivo Tachira FC scores more
56%
level
24%
Zulia FC scores more
20%

Deportivo Tachira FC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Deportivo Tachira FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Tachira FC vs Zulia FC

Deportivo Tachira FC beat Zulia FC 3-0 in Primera División on March 5, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Rafael Agustín Tovar in Barinas.