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Zulia FC vs Deportivo La Guaira — Primera División 2018

Zulia FC
Zulia FC
CANC
20:00
Deportivo La Guaira
Deportivo La Guaira
8/2/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 22Estadio Olímpico José Encarnación Pachencho Romero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Zulia FC40%
×Draw27%
Deportivo La Guaira34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zulia FC
1.34
Deportivo La Guaira
1.22

Zulia FC creates 10% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 148 away

creates per match

Zulia FC
1.48
Deportivo La Guaira
1.22

allows per match

Zulia FC
1.22
Deportivo La Guaira
1.20

finishing

Zulia FC+0.00on par
Deportivo La Guaira+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zulia FC ↓

Deportivo La Guaira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Zulia FC or draw
66%
Zulia FC or Deportivo La Guaira
73%
Draw or Deportivo La Guaira
60%

Winning margin

Zulia FC wins by 2+
18%
Deportivo La Guaira wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Zulia FC 1+ goals
74%
Zulia FC 2+ goals
39%
Zulia FC 3+ goals
15%
Deportivo La Guaira 1+ goals
70%
Deportivo La Guaira 2+ goals
34%
Deportivo La Guaira 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Zulia FC (draw refunded)
54%
Deportivo La Guaira (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zulia FC at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.22 · 67 matches

Deportivo La Guaira away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.20 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zulia FC attack 1.48 + Deportivo La Guaira defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.34

Deportivo La Guaira attack 1.22 + Zulia FC defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Zulia FC scores more
40%
level
27%
Deportivo La Guaira scores more
34%

Zulia FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Zulia FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Zulia FC host Deportivo La Guaira

August 2, 2020: Zulia FC take on Deportivo La Guaira in Primera División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Zulia FC host Deportivo La Guaira at Estadio Olímpico José Encarnación Pachencho Romero.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.