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Zulia FC vs Deportivo Anzoategui — Primera División 2018

Zulia FC
Zulia FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Anzoategui
Deportivo Anzoategui
3/31/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 11Estadio Olímpico José Encarnación Pachencho Romero (Maracaibo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Zulia FC51%
×Draw25%
Deportivo Anzoategui25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zulia FC
1.65
Deportivo Anzoategui
1.07

Zulia FC creates 54% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 26 away

creates per match

Zulia FC
1.48
Deportivo Anzoategui
0.92

allows per match

Zulia FC
1.22
Deportivo Anzoategui
1.81

finishing

Zulia FC+0.00on par
Deportivo Anzoategui+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zulia FC ↓

Deportivo Anzoategui →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Zulia FC or draw
75%
Zulia FC or Deportivo Anzoategui
75%
Draw or Deportivo Anzoategui
49%

Winning margin

Zulia FC wins by 2+
27%
Deportivo Anzoategui wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Zulia FC 1+ goals
81%
Zulia FC 2+ goals
49%
Zulia FC 3+ goals
23%
Deportivo Anzoategui 1+ goals
66%
Deportivo Anzoategui 2+ goals
29%
Deportivo Anzoategui 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Zulia FC (draw refunded)
67%
Deportivo Anzoategui (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zulia FC at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.22 · 67 matches

Deportivo Anzoategui away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.81 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zulia FC attack 1.48 + Deportivo Anzoategui defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.65

Deportivo Anzoategui attack 0.92 + Zulia FC defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Zulia FC scores more
51%
level
25%
Deportivo Anzoategui scores more
25%

Zulia FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Zulia FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Zulia FC 1–0 Deportivo Anzoategui

Zulia FC beat Deportivo Anzoategui 1-0 in Primera División on March 31, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico José Encarnación Pachencho Romero (Maracaibo).