Zulia FC 1–0 Colon Santa Fe: Result & Stats

Zulia FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Colon Santa Fe

Abel Casquete 88'

8/8/2019

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Quarter-finalsEstadio José Pachencho Romero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Zulia FC48%

×Draw31%

Colon Santa Fe21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zulia FCExpected goals in this matchColon Santa Fe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.67

Zulia FC

1.17

Colon Santa Fe

0.67

Zulia FC creates 75% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

1.33

creates per match

1.00

0.33

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Zulia FC

1.33

Colon Santa Fe

1.00

allows per match

Zulia FC

0.33

Colon Santa Fe

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zulia FC+0.00on par

Colon Santa Fe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zulia FC ↓

Colon Santa Fe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Zulia FC or draw

79%

Zulia FC or Colon Santa Fe

69%

Draw or Colon Santa Fe

52%

Winning margin

Zulia FC wins by 2+

21%

Colon Santa Fe wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Zulia FC 1+ goals

69%

Zulia FC 2+ goals

33%

Zulia FC 3+ goals

11%

Colon Santa Fe 1+ goals

49%

Colon Santa Fe 2+ goals

15%

Colon Santa Fe 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Zulia FC (draw refunded)

69%

Colon Santa Fe (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zulia FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Colon Santa Fe away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zulia FC attack 1.33 + Colon Santa Fe defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Colon Santa Fe attack 1.00 + Zulia FC defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Zulia FC scores more

48%

level

31%

Colon Santa Fe scores more

21%

Zulia FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Zulia FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

Andres Maldonado

Zulia FC · D

7.4

Match Events

35'

Gaston Diaz

38'

Gabriel Benitez

43'

Federico Lertora

44'

Gonzalo Escobar← Fernando Zuqui

45'

Luis Miguel Rodriguez

60'

Emanuel Olivera

61'

Marcelo Estigarribia← Cristian Bernardi

65'

Miguel Celis← José Martínez

73'

Matias Fritzler

73'

Guillermo Celis← Rodrigo Aliendro

79'

Luis Paz← Junior Paredes

83'

Abel Casquete← Albert Zambrano

88'

Abel Casquete

90'

Brayan Moya

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ZuliaColon

Overview

60%Possession40%

17Total Shots8

8Corners4

20Fouls16

Shots

17Total Shots8

6On Target0

7Off Target3

4Blocked5

8Inside Box3

9Outside Box5

Passing

60%Possession40%

363Total Passes247

290Accurate Passes162

80%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

20Fouls16

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

2Offsides0