Zulia FC 2–2 CD Hermanos Colmenarez: Result & Stats

Zulia FC

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

CD Hermanos Colmenarez

7/3/2021

Primera División · Round 12Sede Deportiva Lino Alonso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Zulia FC46%

×Draw26%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zulia FCExpected goals in this matchCD Hermanos Colmenarez

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.10

Zulia FC

1.48

CD Hermanos Colmenarez

1.10

Zulia FC creates 35% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 64 away

1.48

creates per match

0.98

1.22

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Zulia FC

1.48

CD Hermanos Colmenarez

0.98

allows per match

Zulia FC

1.22

CD Hermanos Colmenarez

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zulia FC+0.00on par

CD Hermanos Colmenarez+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zulia FC ↓

CD Hermanos Colmenarez →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Zulia FC or draw

72%

Zulia FC or CD Hermanos Colmenarez

74%

Draw or CD Hermanos Colmenarez

54%

Winning margin

Zulia FC wins by 2+

23%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Zulia FC 1+ goals

77%

Zulia FC 2+ goals

43%

Zulia FC 3+ goals

19%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez 1+ goals

67%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez 2+ goals

30%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Zulia FC (draw refunded)

62%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zulia FC at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.22 · 67 matches

CD Hermanos Colmenarez away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.48 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zulia FC attack 1.48 + CD Hermanos Colmenarez defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.48

CD Hermanos Colmenarez attack 0.98 + Zulia FC defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Zulia FC scores more

46%

level

26%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez scores more

28%

Zulia FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Zulia FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff