Zulia FC 1–0 Caracas FC: Result & Stats

Zulia FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Caracas FC

5/21/2022

Primera División · Round 13Sede Deportiva Lino Alonso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Zulia FC37%

×Draw27%

Caracas FC36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zulia FCExpected goals in this matchCaracas FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.22

Zulia FC

1.24

Caracas FC

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 146 away

1.48

creates per match

1.22

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Zulia FC

1.48

Caracas FC

1.22

allows per match

Zulia FC

1.22

Caracas FC

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zulia FC+0.00on par

Caracas FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zulia FC ↓

Caracas FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Zulia FC or draw

64%

Zulia FC or Caracas FC

73%

Draw or Caracas FC

63%

Winning margin

Zulia FC wins by 2+

16%

Caracas FC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Zulia FC 1+ goals

71%

Zulia FC 2+ goals

35%

Zulia FC 3+ goals

13%

Caracas FC 1+ goals

70%

Caracas FC 2+ goals

34%

Caracas FC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Zulia FC (draw refunded)

51%

Caracas FC (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zulia FC at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.22 · 67 matches

Caracas FC away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.00 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zulia FC attack 1.48 + Caracas FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.24

Caracas FC attack 1.22 + Zulia FC defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Zulia FC scores more

37%

level

27%

Caracas FC scores more

36%

Zulia FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Zulia FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff