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Zulia FC vs Atletico Venezuela — Primera División 2018

Zulia FC
Zulia FC
CANC
20:00
Atletico Venezuela
Atletico Venezuela
3/22/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 8Estadio Olímpico José Encarnación Pachencho Romero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Zulia FC46%
×Draw26%
Atletico Venezuela29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zulia FC
1.50
Atletico Venezuela
1.13

Zulia FC creates 33% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 60 away

creates per match

Zulia FC
1.48
Atletico Venezuela
1.03

allows per match

Zulia FC
1.22
Atletico Venezuela
1.53

finishing

Zulia FC+0.00on par
Atletico Venezuela+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zulia FC ↓

Atletico Venezuela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Zulia FC or draw
71%
Zulia FC or Atletico Venezuela
74%
Draw or Atletico Venezuela
54%

Winning margin

Zulia FC wins by 2+
23%
Atletico Venezuela wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Zulia FC 1+ goals
78%
Zulia FC 2+ goals
44%
Zulia FC 3+ goals
19%
Atletico Venezuela 1+ goals
68%
Atletico Venezuela 2+ goals
31%
Atletico Venezuela 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Zulia FC (draw refunded)
62%
Atletico Venezuela (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zulia FC at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.22 · 67 matches

Atletico Venezuela away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.53 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zulia FC attack 1.48 + Atletico Venezuela defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.50

Atletico Venezuela attack 1.03 + Zulia FC defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Zulia FC scores more
46%
level
26%
Atletico Venezuela scores more
29%

Zulia FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Zulia FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zulia FC face Atletico Venezuela (Primera División)

Primera División returns with Zulia FC hosting Atletico Venezuela. Match starts March 22, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Zulia FC host Atletico Venezuela at Estadio Olímpico José Encarnación Pachencho Romero.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.