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Zugdidi vs Tskhinvali — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Zugdidi
Zugdidi
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Tskhinvali
Tskhinvali
6/14/2019Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 15Tsentraluri Stadioni (Zeda Etseri)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Zugdidi45%
×Draw25%
Tskhinvali30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zugdidi
1.58
Tskhinvali
1.23

Zugdidi creates 28% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 18 away

creates per match

Zugdidi
1.33
Tskhinvali
0.83

allows per match

Zugdidi
1.63
Tskhinvali
1.83

finishing

Zugdidi+0.00on par
Tskhinvali+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zugdidi ↓

Tskhinvali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Zugdidi or draw
70%
Zugdidi or Tskhinvali
75%
Draw or Tskhinvali
55%

Winning margin

Zugdidi wins by 2+
23%
Tskhinvali wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Zugdidi 1+ goals
79%
Zugdidi 2+ goals
47%
Zugdidi 3+ goals
21%
Tskhinvali 1+ goals
71%
Tskhinvali 2+ goals
35%
Tskhinvali 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Zugdidi (draw refunded)
60%
Tskhinvali (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zugdidi at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.63 · 24 matches

Tskhinvali away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zugdidi attack 1.33 + Tskhinvali defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.58

Tskhinvali attack 0.83 + Zugdidi defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Zugdidi scores more
45%
level
25%
Tskhinvali scores more
30%

Zugdidi at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Zugdidi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga 2: Zugdidi 1–3 Tskhinvali

Tskhinvali beat Zugdidi 3-1 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on June 14, 2019.

The match was played at Tsentraluri Stadioni (Zeda Etseri).