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Zugdidi vs Telavi — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Zugdidi
Zugdidi
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Telavi
Telavi
5/4/2019Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 9Tsentraluri Stadioni (Anaklia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Zugdidi37%
×Draw25%
Telavi38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zugdidi
1.42
Telavi
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 28 away

creates per match

Zugdidi
1.33
Telavi
1.25

allows per match

Zugdidi
1.63
Telavi
1.50

finishing

Zugdidi+0.00on par
Telavi+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zugdidi ↓

Telavi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Zugdidi or draw
62%
Zugdidi or Telavi
75%
Draw or Telavi
63%

Winning margin

Zugdidi wins by 2+
17%
Telavi wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Zugdidi 1+ goals
76%
Zugdidi 2+ goals
41%
Zugdidi 3+ goals
17%
Telavi 1+ goals
76%
Telavi 2+ goals
42%
Telavi 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Zugdidi (draw refunded)
49%
Telavi (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zugdidi at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.63 · 24 matches

Telavi away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zugdidi attack 1.33 + Telavi defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Telavi attack 1.25 + Zugdidi defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Zugdidi scores more
37%
level
25%
Telavi scores more
38%

Telavi at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Telavi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zugdidi vs Telavi

Telavi beat Zugdidi 4-1 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on May 4, 2019.

The match was played at Tsentraluri Stadioni (Anaklia).