Zugdidi 1–2 Shevardeni 1906: Result & Stats

Zugdidi

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Shevardeni 1906

11/23/2019

Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 35Tsentraluri Stadioni (Anaklia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Zugdidi41%

×Draw25%

Shevardeni 190635%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZugdidiExpected goals in this matchShevardeni 1906

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.38

Zugdidi

1.52

Shevardeni 1906

1.38

Zugdidi creates 10% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 48 away

1.33

creates per match

1.13

1.63

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Zugdidi

1.33

Shevardeni 1906

1.13

allows per match

Zugdidi

1.63

Shevardeni 1906

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zugdidi+0.00on par

Shevardeni 1906+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zugdidi ↓

Shevardeni 1906 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Zugdidi or draw

65%

Zugdidi or Shevardeni 1906

75%

Draw or Shevardeni 1906

59%

Winning margin

Zugdidi wins by 2+

20%

Shevardeni 1906 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Zugdidi 1+ goals

78%

Zugdidi 2+ goals

45%

Zugdidi 3+ goals

20%

Shevardeni 1906 1+ goals

75%

Shevardeni 1906 2+ goals

40%

Shevardeni 1906 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Zugdidi (draw refunded)

54%

Shevardeni 1906 (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zugdidi at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.63 · 24 matches

Shevardeni 1906 away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.71 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zugdidi attack 1.33 + Shevardeni 1906 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.52

Shevardeni 1906 attack 1.13 + Zugdidi defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Zugdidi scores more

41%

level

25%

Shevardeni 1906 scores more

35%

Zugdidi at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Zugdidi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff