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Zugdidi vs Rustavi — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Zugdidi
Zugdidi
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Rustavi
Rustavi
8/11/2020Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 7Tsentraluri Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Zugdidi38%
×Draw25%
Rustavi37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zugdidi
1.46
Rustavi
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 71 away

creates per match

Zugdidi
1.33
Rustavi
1.24

allows per match

Zugdidi
1.63
Rustavi
1.59

finishing

Zugdidi+0.00on par
Rustavi+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zugdidi ↓

Rustavi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Zugdidi or draw
63%
Zugdidi or Rustavi
75%
Draw or Rustavi
62%

Winning margin

Zugdidi wins by 2+
18%
Rustavi wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Zugdidi 1+ goals
77%
Zugdidi 2+ goals
43%
Zugdidi 3+ goals
18%
Rustavi 1+ goals
76%
Rustavi 2+ goals
42%
Rustavi 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Zugdidi (draw refunded)
51%
Rustavi (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zugdidi at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.63 · 24 matches

Rustavi away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.59 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zugdidi attack 1.33 + Rustavi defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.46

Rustavi attack 1.24 + Zugdidi defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Zugdidi scores more
38%
level
25%
Rustavi scores more
37%

Zugdidi at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Zugdidi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga 2: Zugdidi 3–1 Rustavi

Zugdidi beat Rustavi 3-1 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on August 11, 2020.

The match was played at Tsentraluri Stadioni in Anaklia.