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Zugdidi vs Merani Tbilisi — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Zugdidi
Zugdidi
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Merani Tbilisi
Merani Tbilisi
8/18/2019Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 22Tsentraluri Stadioni (Zeda Etseri)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Zugdidi42%
×Draw23%
Merani Tbilisi35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zugdidi
1.68
Merani Tbilisi
1.51

Zugdidi creates 11% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 64 away

creates per match

Zugdidi
1.33
Merani Tbilisi
1.39

allows per match

Zugdidi
1.63
Merani Tbilisi
2.03

finishing

Zugdidi+0.00on par
Merani Tbilisi+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zugdidi ↓

Merani Tbilisi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Zugdidi or draw
65%
Zugdidi or Merani Tbilisi
77%
Draw or Merani Tbilisi
58%

Winning margin

Zugdidi wins by 2+
22%
Merani Tbilisi wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Zugdidi 1+ goals
81%
Zugdidi 2+ goals
50%
Zugdidi 3+ goals
24%
Merani Tbilisi 1+ goals
78%
Merani Tbilisi 2+ goals
44%
Merani Tbilisi 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Zugdidi (draw refunded)
55%
Merani Tbilisi (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zugdidi at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.63 · 24 matches

Merani Tbilisi away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.03 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zugdidi attack 1.33 + Merani Tbilisi defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.68

Merani Tbilisi attack 1.39 + Zugdidi defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Zugdidi scores more
42%
level
23%
Merani Tbilisi scores more
35%

Zugdidi at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Zugdidi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zugdidi vs Merani Tbilisi

Merani Tbilisi beat Zugdidi 2-1 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on August 18, 2019.

The match was played at Tsentraluri Stadioni (Zeda Etseri).