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Zugdidi vs Guria — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Zugdidi
Zugdidi
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Guria
Guria
9/13/2019Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 25Tsentraluri Stadioni (Anaklia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Zugdidi48%
×Draw24%
Guria28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zugdidi
1.70
Guria
1.26

Zugdidi creates 35% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 18 away

creates per match

Zugdidi
1.33
Guria
0.89

allows per match

Zugdidi
1.63
Guria
2.06

finishing

Zugdidi+0.00on par
Guria+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zugdidi ↓

Guria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Zugdidi or draw
72%
Zugdidi or Guria
76%
Draw or Guria
52%

Winning margin

Zugdidi wins by 2+
25%
Guria wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Zugdidi 1+ goals
82%
Zugdidi 2+ goals
51%
Zugdidi 3+ goals
24%
Guria 1+ goals
72%
Guria 2+ goals
36%
Guria 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Zugdidi (draw refunded)
63%
Guria (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zugdidi at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.63 · 24 matches

Guria away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zugdidi attack 1.33 + Guria defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.70

Guria attack 0.89 + Zugdidi defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Zugdidi scores more
48%
level
24%
Guria scores more
28%

Zugdidi at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Zugdidi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga 2: Zugdidi 2–1 Guria

Zugdidi beat Guria 2-1 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on September 13, 2019.

The match was played at Tsentraluri Stadioni (Anaklia).