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Zuera vs Caspe — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Zuera
Zuera
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Caspe
Caspe
10/5/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 5Campo de Fútbol Municipal Zuera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Zuera32%
×Draw29%
Caspe39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zuera
1.04
Caspe
1.18

Caspe creates 13% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 83 away

creates per match

Zuera
0.97
Caspe
0.89

allows per match

Zuera
1.47
Caspe
1.10

finishing

Zuera+0.00on par
Caspe+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zuera ↓

Caspe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Zuera or draw
61%
Zuera or Caspe
71%
Draw or Caspe
68%

Winning margin

Zuera wins by 2+
12%
Caspe wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Zuera 1+ goals
65%
Zuera 2+ goals
28%
Zuera 3+ goals
9%
Caspe 1+ goals
69%
Caspe 2+ goals
33%
Caspe 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Zuera (draw refunded)
45%
Caspe (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zuera at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

Caspe away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.10 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zuera attack 0.97 + Caspe defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.04

Caspe attack 0.89 + Zuera defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Zuera scores more
32%
level
29%
Caspe scores more
39%

Caspe at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Caspe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Zuera 0–3 Caspe

Caspe beat Zuera 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on October 5, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Municipal Zuera in Zuera.