Zsámbéki SK 1–1 Móri SE: Result & Stats

Zsámbéki SK

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Móri SE

10/16/2022

NB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 13Zsámbéki SK Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Zsámbéki SK36%

×Draw22%

Móri SE42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zsámbéki SKExpected goals in this matchMóri SE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.87

Zsámbéki SK

1.71

Móri SE

1.87

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

0.95

creates per match

1.16

2.58

allows per match

2.47

creates per match

Zsámbéki SK

0.95

Móri SE

1.16

allows per match

Zsámbéki SK

2.58

Móri SE

2.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zsámbéki SK+0.00on par

Móri SE+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zsámbéki SK ↓

Móri SE →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Zsámbéki SK or draw

58%

Zsámbéki SK or Móri SE

78%

Draw or Móri SE

64%

Winning margin

Zsámbéki SK wins by 2+

18%

Móri SE wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Zsámbéki SK 1+ goals

82%

Zsámbéki SK 2+ goals

51%

Zsámbéki SK 3+ goals

24%

Móri SE 1+ goals

85%

Móri SE 2+ goals

56%

Móri SE 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Zsámbéki SK (draw refunded)

46%

Móri SE (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zsámbéki SK at home — creates 0.95, concedes 2.58 · 19 matches

Móri SE away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zsámbéki SK attack 0.95 + Móri SE defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.71

Móri SE attack 1.16 + Zsámbéki SK defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Zsámbéki SK scores more

36%

level

22%

Móri SE scores more

42%

Móri SE at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Móri SE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff