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Zsámbéki SK vs Gyirmót II — NB III - Southwest 2019

Zsámbéki SK
Zsámbéki SK
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 5
Gyirmót II
Gyirmót II
10/9/2022NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 12Zsámbéki SK Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Zsámbéki SK29%
×Draw21%
Gyirmót II50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zsámbéki SK
1.56
Gyirmót II
2.10

Gyirmót II creates 35% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

creates per match

Zsámbéki SK
0.95
Gyirmót II
1.61

allows per match

Zsámbéki SK
2.58
Gyirmót II
2.18

finishing

Zsámbéki SK+0.00on par
Gyirmót II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zsámbéki SK ↓

Gyirmót II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Zsámbéki SK or draw
50%
Zsámbéki SK or Gyirmót II
79%
Draw or Gyirmót II
71%

Winning margin

Zsámbéki SK wins by 2+
13%
Gyirmót II wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Zsámbéki SK 1+ goals
79%
Zsámbéki SK 2+ goals
46%
Zsámbéki SK 3+ goals
21%
Gyirmót II 1+ goals
88%
Gyirmót II 2+ goals
62%
Gyirmót II 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Zsámbéki SK (draw refunded)
37%
Gyirmót II (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zsámbéki SK at home — creates 0.95, concedes 2.58 · 19 matches

Gyirmót II away — creates 1.61, concedes 2.18 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zsámbéki SK attack 0.95 + Gyirmót II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.56

Gyirmót II attack 1.61 + Zsámbéki SK defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Zsámbéki SK scores more
29%
level
21%
Gyirmót II scores more
50%

Gyirmót II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Gyirmót II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Zsámbéki SK 0–5 Gyirmót II

Gyirmót II beat Zsámbéki SK 5-0 in NB III - Southwest on October 9, 2022.

The match was played at Zsámbéki SK Sporttelep in Zsámbék.