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Zrinski Jurjevac vs NK Osijek II — Second NL 2022

Zrinski Jurjevac
Zrinski Jurjevac
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
NK Osijek II
NK Osijek II
T. Kupresak 90'
S. Salapic 88'
3/31/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 21Stadion NK Čepin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zrinski Jurjevac67%
×Draw21%
NK Osijek II12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zrinski Jurjevac
1.94
NK Osijek II
0.67

Zrinski Jurjevac creates 190% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Zrinski Jurjevac
1.47
NK Osijek II
0.67

allows per match

Zrinski Jurjevac
0.67
NK Osijek II
2.40

finishing

Zrinski Jurjevac+0.00on par
NK Osijek II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zrinski Jurjevac ↓

NK Osijek II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Zrinski Jurjevac or draw
88%
Zrinski Jurjevac or NK Osijek II
79%
Draw or NK Osijek II
33%

Winning margin

Zrinski Jurjevac wins by 2+
42%
NK Osijek II wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Zrinski Jurjevac 1+ goals
86%
Zrinski Jurjevac 2+ goals
58%
Zrinski Jurjevac 3+ goals
30%
NK Osijek II 1+ goals
49%
NK Osijek II 2+ goals
15%
NK Osijek II 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Zrinski Jurjevac (draw refunded)
85%
NK Osijek II (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zrinski Jurjevac at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

NK Osijek II away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zrinski Jurjevac attack 1.47 + NK Osijek II defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.94

NK Osijek II attack 0.67 + Zrinski Jurjevac defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Zrinski Jurjevac scores more
67%
level
21%
NK Osijek II scores more
12%

Zrinski Jurjevac at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Zrinski Jurjevac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

88'
S. Salapic
90'
T. Kupresak

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zrinski Jurjevac 2 – 0 NK Osijek II

Zrinski Jurjevac beat NK Osijek II 2-0 in Second NL on March 31, 2023.

Goals: S. Salapic (88'), T. Kupresak (90').

The match was played at Stadion NK Čepin in Čepin.