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Zrinski Jurjevac vs Mladost Ždralovi — Second NL 2022

Zrinski Jurjevac
Zrinski Jurjevac
FT
0 – 0
Mladost Ždralovi
Mladost Ždralovi
8/19/2022Second NLSecond NL · Round 1Stadion NK Čepin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zrinski Jurjevac41%
×Draw28%
Mladost Ždralovi31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zrinski Jurjevac
1.27
Mladost Ždralovi
1.08

Zrinski Jurjevac creates 18% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 60 away

creates per match

Zrinski Jurjevac
1.47
Mladost Ždralovi
1.50

allows per match

Zrinski Jurjevac
0.67
Mladost Ždralovi
1.08

finishing

Zrinski Jurjevac+0.00on par
Mladost Ždralovi+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zrinski Jurjevac ↓

Mladost Ždralovi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Zrinski Jurjevac or draw
69%
Zrinski Jurjevac or Mladost Ždralovi
72%
Draw or Mladost Ždralovi
59%

Winning margin

Zrinski Jurjevac wins by 2+
18%
Mladost Ždralovi wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Zrinski Jurjevac 1+ goals
72%
Zrinski Jurjevac 2+ goals
36%
Zrinski Jurjevac 3+ goals
14%
Mladost Ždralovi 1+ goals
66%
Mladost Ždralovi 2+ goals
29%
Mladost Ždralovi 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Zrinski Jurjevac (draw refunded)
56%
Mladost Ždralovi (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zrinski Jurjevac at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Mladost Ždralovi away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.08 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zrinski Jurjevac attack 1.47 + Mladost Ždralovi defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.27

Mladost Ždralovi attack 1.50 + Zrinski Jurjevac defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Zrinski Jurjevac scores more
41%
level
28%
Mladost Ždralovi scores more
31%

Zrinski Jurjevac at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Zrinski Jurjevac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Zrinski Jurjevac 0–0 Mladost Ždralovi

Zrinski Jurjevac and Mladost Ždralovi drew 0-0 in Second NL on August 19, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion NK Čepin in Čepin.