Zrinski Jurjevac 0–2 Dubrava Zagreb: Result & Stats

Zrinski Jurjevac

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Dubrava Zagreb

L. Vrbančić 89'

D. Juranović 22' (pen)

3/16/2024

First NL · Round 22Stadion Gradski vrt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Zrinski Jurjevac41%

×Draw28%

Dubrava Zagreb31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zrinski JurjevacExpected goals in this matchDubrava Zagreb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.06

Zrinski Jurjevac

1.25

Dubrava Zagreb

1.06

Zrinski Jurjevac creates 18% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 106 away

1.15

creates per match

0.98

1.15

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Zrinski Jurjevac

1.15

Dubrava Zagreb

0.98

allows per match

Zrinski Jurjevac

1.15

Dubrava Zagreb

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zrinski Jurjevac+0.00on par

Dubrava Zagreb+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zrinski Jurjevac ↓

Dubrava Zagreb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Zrinski Jurjevac or draw

69%

Zrinski Jurjevac or Dubrava Zagreb

72%

Draw or Dubrava Zagreb

59%

Winning margin

Zrinski Jurjevac wins by 2+

18%

Dubrava Zagreb wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Zrinski Jurjevac 1+ goals

71%

Zrinski Jurjevac 2+ goals

36%

Zrinski Jurjevac 3+ goals

13%

Dubrava Zagreb 1+ goals

65%

Dubrava Zagreb 2+ goals

29%

Dubrava Zagreb 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Zrinski Jurjevac (draw refunded)

56%

Dubrava Zagreb (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zrinski Jurjevac at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.15 · 34 matches

Dubrava Zagreb away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.36 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zrinski Jurjevac attack 1.15 + Dubrava Zagreb defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.25

Dubrava Zagreb attack 0.98 + Zrinski Jurjevac defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Zrinski Jurjevac scores more

41%

level

28%

Dubrava Zagreb scores more

31%

Zrinski Jurjevac at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Zrinski Jurjevac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

M. Orsolic

22'

D. JuranovićPenalty

27'

L. Kekez

46'

I. Svržnjak← P. Korov

46'

I. Jajalo← D. Stranput

46'

A. Mujagić← M. Oršolić

51'

L. Vrbančić← L. Kekez

69'

G. Eskinja← A. Pekarić

73'

T. Palic

73'

G. Eskinja

77'

V. Dalic

78'

P. Pejić← T. Kuprešak

81'

N. Vugrinec← D. Sivonjić

87'

D. Tomas← T. Palić

89'

L. Vrbančić

90+4'

I. Svrznjak

Zrinski

Dubrava

44

Mustapić

26

Ikenna

6

▼

5

2

13

21

20

17

⚽

Juranović

7

▼

Kekez

25

▼

Sivonjić

24

Stanić

11

Dalić

33

▼

Oršolić

6

Stanić

3

▼

Kuprešak

16

▼

Pekarić

8

Horvat

9

▼

Stranput

23

Jelavić

17

▼

Korov

30

Dogan

Manager: I. Budiša

46'▲I. Svržnjak←▼P. Korov

46'▲I. Jajalo←▼D. Stranput

46'▲A. Mujagić←▼M. Oršolić

69'▲G. Eskinja←▼A. Pekarić

78'▲P. Pejić←▼T. Kuprešak

Zrinski Jurjevac substitutes

14Svržnjak19Jajalo21Mujagić13Eskinja10Pejić1Čović4Stanić5Ćubel20Čilaš

Manager: K. Sunara

51'▲L. Vrbančić←▼L. Kekez

81'▲N. Vugrinec←▼D. Sivonjić

87'▲D. Tomas←▼T. Palić

Dubrava Zagreb substitutes

10Vrbančić11Vugrinec16Tomas3Jakovljević9Kesse19Raužan22Sirong40Šarkanj18Tunjić

First NL: Zrinski Jurjevac 0–2 Dubrava Zagreb

Dubrava Zagreb beat Zrinski Jurjevac 2-0 in First NL on March 16, 2024.

Goals: D. Juranović (22' pen), L. Vrbančić (89').

The match was played at Stadion Gradski vrt in Osijek.

Zrinski Jurjevac vs Dubrava Zagreb — First NL 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First NL: Zrinski Jurjevac 0–2 Dubrava Zagreb