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Zrinski Jurjevac vs Bsk Bijelo Brdo — First NL 2018

Zrinski Jurjevac
Zrinski Jurjevac
FT
0 – 3
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
5/10/2025First NLFirst NL · Round 30Stadion Gradski vrt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Zrinski Jurjevac42%
×Draw28%
Bsk Bijelo Brdo30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zrinski Jurjevac
1.31
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.05

Zrinski Jurjevac creates 25% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 122 away

creates per match

Zrinski Jurjevac
1.15
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.96

allows per match

Zrinski Jurjevac
1.15
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.47

finishing

Zrinski Jurjevac+0.00on par
Bsk Bijelo Brdo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zrinski Jurjevac ↓

Bsk Bijelo Brdo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Zrinski Jurjevac or draw
70%
Zrinski Jurjevac or Bsk Bijelo Brdo
72%
Draw or Bsk Bijelo Brdo
58%

Winning margin

Zrinski Jurjevac wins by 2+
19%
Bsk Bijelo Brdo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Zrinski Jurjevac 1+ goals
73%
Zrinski Jurjevac 2+ goals
38%
Zrinski Jurjevac 3+ goals
14%
Bsk Bijelo Brdo 1+ goals
65%
Bsk Bijelo Brdo 2+ goals
28%
Bsk Bijelo Brdo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Zrinski Jurjevac (draw refunded)
59%
Bsk Bijelo Brdo (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zrinski Jurjevac at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.15 · 34 matches

Bsk Bijelo Brdo away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.47 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zrinski Jurjevac attack 1.15 + Bsk Bijelo Brdo defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.31

Bsk Bijelo Brdo attack 0.96 + Zrinski Jurjevac defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Zrinski Jurjevac scores more
42%
level
28%
Bsk Bijelo Brdo scores more
30%

Zrinski Jurjevac at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Zrinski Jurjevac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zrinski Jurjevac vs Bsk Bijelo Brdo

Bsk Bijelo Brdo beat Zrinski Jurjevac 3-0 in First NL on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Gradski vrt in Osijek.