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Zrinjski vs FK Sarajevo — Premijer Liga 2019

Zrinjski
Zrinjski
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FK Sarajevo
FK Sarajevo
9/10/2025Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 1Stadion pod Bijelim Brijegom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Zrinjski55%
×Draw24%
FK Sarajevo21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zrinjski
1.72
FK Sarajevo
0.97

Zrinjski creates 77% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 108 away

creates per match

Zrinjski
2.26
FK Sarajevo
1.32

allows per match

Zrinjski
0.61
FK Sarajevo
1.19

finishing

Zrinjski+0.00on par
FK Sarajevo+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zrinjski ↓

FK Sarajevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Zrinjski or draw
79%
Zrinjski or FK Sarajevo
76%
Draw or FK Sarajevo
45%

Winning margin

Zrinjski wins by 2+
30%
FK Sarajevo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Zrinjski 1+ goals
82%
Zrinjski 2+ goals
51%
Zrinjski 3+ goals
25%
FK Sarajevo 1+ goals
62%
FK Sarajevo 2+ goals
25%
FK Sarajevo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Zrinjski (draw refunded)
72%
FK Sarajevo (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zrinjski at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.61 · 114 matches

FK Sarajevo away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.19 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zrinjski attack 2.26 + FK Sarajevo defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.72

FK Sarajevo attack 1.32 + Zrinjski defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Zrinjski scores more
55%
level
24%
FK Sarajevo scores more
21%

Zrinjski at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Zrinjski will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premijer Liga: Zrinjski 2–0 FK Sarajevo

Zrinjski beat FK Sarajevo 2-0 in Premijer Liga on September 10, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion pod Bijelim Brijegom in Mostar.