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Zrinjski vs Aston Villa — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Zrinjski
Zrinjski
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
12/14/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 6Stadion Bijeli Brijeg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Zrinjski34%
×Draw24%
Aston Villa42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zrinjski
1.43
Aston Villa
1.61

Aston Villa creates 13% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 6 away

creates per match

Zrinjski
1.69
Aston Villa
2.00

allows per match

Zrinjski
1.23
Aston Villa
1.17

finishing

Zrinjski+0.00on par
Aston Villa+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zrinjski ↓

Aston Villa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Zrinjski or draw
58%
Zrinjski or Aston Villa
76%
Draw or Aston Villa
66%

Winning margin

Zrinjski wins by 2+
16%
Aston Villa wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Zrinjski 1+ goals
76%
Zrinjski 2+ goals
42%
Zrinjski 3+ goals
17%
Aston Villa 1+ goals
80%
Aston Villa 2+ goals
48%
Aston Villa 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Zrinjski (draw refunded)
45%
Aston Villa (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zrinjski at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

Aston Villa away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zrinjski attack 1.69 + Aston Villa defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.43

Aston Villa attack 2.00 + Zrinjski defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Zrinjski scores more
34%
level
24%
Aston Villa scores more
42%

Aston Villa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Aston Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zrinjski vs Aston Villa

Zrinjski and Aston Villa drew 1-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on December 14, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Bijeli Brijeg in Mostar.