Zreče 2–0 Šmarje pri Jelšah: Result & Stats

Zreče

FT

2 – 0

Šmarje pri Jelšah

10/3/2020

3. SNL - East · East - 7Zreški Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Zreče59%

×Draw21%

Šmarje pri Jelšah20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZrečeExpected goals in this matchŠmarje pri Jelšah

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.06

Zreče

2.00

Šmarje pri Jelšah

1.06

Zreče creates 89% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

0.88

creates per match

1.13

1.00

allows per match

3.13

creates per match

Zreče

0.88

Šmarje pri Jelšah

1.13

allows per match

Zreče

1.00

Šmarje pri Jelšah

3.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zreče+0.00on par

Šmarje pri Jelšah+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zreče ↓

Šmarje pri Jelšah →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Zreče or draw

80%

Zreče or Šmarje pri Jelšah

79%

Draw or Šmarje pri Jelšah

41%

Winning margin

Zreče wins by 2+

35%

Šmarje pri Jelšah wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Zreče 1+ goals

86%

Zreče 2+ goals

59%

Zreče 3+ goals

32%

Šmarje pri Jelšah 1+ goals

65%

Šmarje pri Jelšah 2+ goals

29%

Šmarje pri Jelšah 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Zreče (draw refunded)

75%

Šmarje pri Jelšah (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zreče at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Šmarje pri Jelšah away — creates 1.13, concedes 3.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zreče attack 0.88 + Šmarje pri Jelšah defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.00

Šmarje pri Jelšah attack 1.13 + Zreče defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Zreče scores more

59%

level

21%

Šmarje pri Jelšah scores more

20%

Zreče at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Zreče will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff