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Zorya Luhansk vs Rukh Vynnyky — Premier League 2026

Zorya Luhansk
Zorya Luhansk
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rukh Vynnyky
Rukh Vynnyky
10/25/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Slavutych-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Zorya Luhansk40%
×Draw28%
Rukh Vynnyky33%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zorya Luhansk
1.28
Rukh Vynnyky
1.13

Zorya Luhansk creates 13% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

creates per match

Zorya Luhansk
1.14
Rukh Vynnyky
0.92

allows per match

Zorya Luhansk
1.33
Rukh Vynnyky
1.42

finishing

Zorya Luhansk-0.07on par
Rukh Vynnyky-0.22scores less

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zorya Luhansk ↓

Rukh Vynnyky →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Zorya Luhansk or draw
67%
Zorya Luhansk or Rukh Vynnyky
72%
Draw or Rukh Vynnyky
60%

Winning margin

Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+
18%
Rukh Vynnyky wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals
72%
Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals
37%
Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals
14%
Rukh Vynnyky 1+ goals
68%
Rukh Vynnyky 2+ goals
31%
Rukh Vynnyky 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)
55%
Rukh Vynnyky (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zorya Luhansk at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.33 · 14 matches

Rukh Vynnyky away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.42 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.14 + Rukh Vynnyky defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.28

Rukh Vynnyky attack 0.92 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Zorya Luhansk scores more
40%
level
28%
Rukh Vynnyky scores more
33%

Zorya Luhansk at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Zorya Luhansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Zorya Luhansk 4–0 Rukh Vynnyky

Zorya Luhansk beat Rukh Vynnyky 4-0 in Premier League on October 25, 2020.

The match was played at Slavutych-Arena in Zaporizhzhia.