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Zorya Luhansk vs Ruh Lviv — Premier League 2019

Zorya Luhansk
Zorya Luhansk
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ruh Lviv
Ruh Lviv
12/4/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Stadion Avanhard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Zorya Luhansk38%
×Draw28%
Ruh Lviv35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zorya Luhansk
1.23
Ruh Lviv
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

creates per match

Zorya Luhansk
1.01
Ruh Lviv
0.92

allows per match

Zorya Luhansk
1.41
Ruh Lviv
1.45

finishing

Zorya Luhansk-0.01on par
Ruh Lviv-0.14scores less

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zorya Luhansk ↓

Ruh Lviv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Zorya Luhansk or draw
65%
Zorya Luhansk or Ruh Lviv
72%
Draw or Ruh Lviv
62%

Winning margin

Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+
16%
Ruh Lviv wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals
71%
Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals
35%
Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals
13%
Ruh Lviv 1+ goals
69%
Ruh Lviv 2+ goals
33%
Ruh Lviv 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)
52%
Ruh Lviv (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zorya Luhansk at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.41 · 12 matches

Ruh Lviv away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.45 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.01 + Ruh Lviv defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.23

Ruh Lviv attack 0.92 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Zorya Luhansk scores more
38%
level
28%
Ruh Lviv scores more
35%

Zorya Luhansk at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Zorya Luhansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
V. ChurkoZorya LuhanskZorya Luhansk · M
8.3

Match Events

33'
Vasyl Runich
60'
O. Danchenko← Jordan
60'
I. Horbach← D. Antiukh
64'
Denys Nagnoynyi
70'
V. Solomon-Otabor← V. Runich
70'
O. Fedor← Y. Karabin
81'
V. Buhai← D. Alefirenko
81'
K. Aziangbe← D. Nahnoinyi
81'
D. Pidhurskyi← A. Plumain
90+1'
Eduardo Guerrero

Possession

52%Zorya

Shots

14Zorya

Pass accuracy

50%Zorya

Statistics

ZoryaRuh
Overview
52%Possession48%
14Total Shots11
1.16Expected Goals (xG)0.93
10Corners6
12Fouls14
Shots
14Total Shots11
3On Target2
4Off Target3
7Blocked5
9Inside Box7
5Outside Box4
Passing
52%Possession48%
383Total Passes400
276Accurate Passes289
72%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls14
2Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Zorya Luhansk vs Ruh Lviv

Zorya Luhansk and Ruh Lviv drew 0-0 in Premier League on December 4, 2023.

Zorya Luhansk controlled possession (52%) and registered 14 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadion Avanhard in Uzhhorod.