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Zorya Luhansk vs Proleter Novi SAD — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Zorya Luhansk
Zorya Luhansk
FT
2 – 1
Proleter Novi SAD
Proleter Novi SAD
7/8/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Zorya Luhansk43%
×Draw24%
Proleter Novi SAD33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zorya Luhansk
1.67
Proleter Novi SAD
1.44

Zorya Luhansk creates 16% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 5 away

creates per match

Zorya Luhansk
1.53
Proleter Novi SAD
1.40

allows per match

Zorya Luhansk
1.47
Proleter Novi SAD
1.80

finishing

Zorya Luhansk+0.00on par
Proleter Novi SAD+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zorya Luhansk ↓

Proleter Novi SAD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Zorya Luhansk or draw
67%
Zorya Luhansk or Proleter Novi SAD
76%
Draw or Proleter Novi SAD
57%

Winning margin

Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+
22%
Proleter Novi SAD wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals
81%
Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals
50%
Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals
23%
Proleter Novi SAD 1+ goals
76%
Proleter Novi SAD 2+ goals
42%
Proleter Novi SAD 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)
56%
Proleter Novi SAD (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zorya Luhansk at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Proleter Novi SAD away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.53 + Proleter Novi SAD defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.67

Proleter Novi SAD attack 1.40 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Zorya Luhansk scores more
43%
level
24%
Proleter Novi SAD scores more
33%

Zorya Luhansk at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Zorya Luhansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Zorya Luhansk 2–1 Proleter Novi SAD

Zorya Luhansk beat Proleter Novi SAD 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 8, 2021.

The match was played at TBC in TBC.