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Zorya Luhansk vs Lviv — Premier League 2026

Zorya Luhansk
Zorya Luhansk
CANC
14:00
Lviv
Lviv
5/21/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 30Slavutych-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Zorya Luhansk57%
×Draw24%
Lviv19%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zorya Luhansk
1.66
Lviv
0.83

Zorya Luhansk creates 100% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 52 away

creates per match

Zorya Luhansk
1.44
Lviv
0.73

allows per match

Zorya Luhansk
0.94
Lviv
1.87

finishing

Zorya Luhansk+0.00on par
Lviv+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zorya Luhansk ↓

Lviv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Zorya Luhansk or draw
81%
Zorya Luhansk or Lviv
76%
Draw or Lviv
43%

Winning margin

Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+
31%
Lviv wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals
81%
Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals
49%
Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals
23%
Lviv 1+ goals
56%
Lviv 2+ goals
20%
Lviv 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)
75%
Lviv (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zorya Luhansk at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.94 · 98 matches

Lviv away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.87 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.44 + Lviv defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.66

Lviv attack 0.73 + Zorya Luhansk defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Zorya Luhansk scores more
57%
level
24%
Lviv scores more
19%

Zorya Luhansk at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Zorya Luhansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Zorya Luhansk host Lviv

May 21, 2022: Zorya Luhansk take on Lviv in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Zorya Luhansk host Lviv at Slavutych-Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.