Zorya Luhansk 1–2 Göztepe: Result & Stats

Zorya Luhansk

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Göztepe

P. Budkivskyi 78' (pen)

S. Armstrong 50', 38'

7/23/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Zorya Luhansk23%

×Draw25%

Göztepe52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zorya LuhanskExpected goals in this matchGöztepe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

1.60

Zorya Luhansk

0.99

Göztepe

1.60

Göztepe creates 62% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 5 away

1.39

creates per match

1.60

1.61

allows per match

0.60

creates per match

Zorya Luhansk

1.39

Göztepe

1.60

allows per match

Zorya Luhansk

1.61

Göztepe

0.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zorya Luhansk+0.00on par

Göztepe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zorya Luhansk ↓

Göztepe →

0–08%

0–112%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Zorya Luhansk or draw

48%

Zorya Luhansk or Göztepe

75%

Draw or Göztepe

77%

Winning margin

Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+

Göztepe wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals

63%

Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals

26%

Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals

Göztepe 1+ goals

80%

Göztepe 2+ goals

47%

Göztepe 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)

31%

Göztepe (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Zorya Luhansk at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.61 · 18 matches

Göztepe away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.39 + Göztepe defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.99

Göztepe attack 1.60 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Zorya Luhansk scores more

23%

level

25%

Göztepe scores more

52%

Göztepe at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Göztepe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

S. Armstrong

50'

S. Armstrong

78'

P. BudkivskyiPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff