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Zorya Luhansk vs FC Mariupol — Premier League 2026

Zorya Luhansk
Zorya Luhansk
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Mariupol
FC Mariupol
9/21/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Slavutych-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Zorya Luhansk52%
×Draw25%
FC Mariupol23%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zorya Luhansk
1.57
FC Mariupol
0.96

Zorya Luhansk creates 64% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 41 away

creates per match

Zorya Luhansk
1.49
FC Mariupol
1.00

allows per match

Zorya Luhansk
0.91
FC Mariupol
1.66

finishing

Zorya Luhansk+0.00on par
FC Mariupol+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zorya Luhansk ↓

FC Mariupol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Zorya Luhansk or draw
77%
Zorya Luhansk or FC Mariupol
75%
Draw or FC Mariupol
48%

Winning margin

Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+
27%
FC Mariupol wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals
79%
Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals
46%
Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals
21%
FC Mariupol 1+ goals
62%
FC Mariupol 2+ goals
25%
FC Mariupol 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)
69%
FC Mariupol (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zorya Luhansk at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.91 · 104 matches

FC Mariupol away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.66 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.49 + FC Mariupol defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.57

FC Mariupol attack 1.00 + Zorya Luhansk defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Zorya Luhansk scores more
52%
level
25%
FC Mariupol scores more
23%

Zorya Luhansk at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Zorya Luhansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zorya Luhansk vs FC Mariupol

Zorya Luhansk and FC Mariupol drew 0-0 in Premier League on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at Slavutych-Arena in Zaporozh'ye.